On October 29, the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate by another 0.25%—the second cut in a row—bringing the target range to 3.75%–4.00%. The Fed also said it will stop shrinking its balance sheet on Dec. 1, a technical move that can help ease market liquidity. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that another cut in December is not a sure thing.
So…does your mortgage rate drop today? Probably not meaningfully. Much of this move was already priced in, and most forecasts have 30-year fixed rates hovering a touch above 6%, with only modest room to fall unless the economy slows more than expected.
If You’re Buying
- Affordability has improved vs. earlier this year. Rates recently hit year-to-date lows near the low-6%s, nudging monthly payments down and bringing some buyers back. Expect better breathing room than in January.
- Don’t bank on a rate free-fall. Markets anticipated this cut; absent weaker data, mortgage rates may not slide much further in the near term. If a home fits your budget today, waiting solely for a lower rate could cost you if inventory tightens.
If You’re Selling
- Activity can tick up after cuts. Lower (or stable-to-lower) rates tend to boost showing traffic and widen the pool of qualified buyers—especially for well-priced homes in move-in-ready condition. Though the current shutdown may overshadow that.
- Pricing discipline still matters. Buyers are rate-sensitive and selective. Homes aligned with the most recent comps and prepped well (repairs, paint, lighting, curb appeal) are the ones getting strong first-week interest.
- Terms, not just price. With more buyers re-entering, you may be able to negotiate for stronger earnest money, shorter contingencies, or rent-backs—sometimes more valuable than squeezing the last 0.5% on price.
DMV Reality Check
- Neighborhood-by-neighborhood. Demand is still hyper-local. Single-family homes in close-in suburbs and well-run townhome communities remain competitive; some condo sub-markets are balanced to soft. Your micro-market comps matter more than national headlines.
- Appraisals & concessions. As rates stabilize, appraisals should track recent sales more predictably. If you’re selling, consider targeted concessions (closing cost credit vs. price cut) to keep deals moving without resetting comps.
- Government shutdown backdrop. The Fed acknowledged the shutdown’s drag on activity but expects those effects to reverse after it ends; I’m watching how DMV-heavy federal employment and contractors influence local sentiment week by week.
Bottom Line
- The Fed cut was expected and won’t dramatically change mortgage rates overnight, but it supports the gentle easing we’ve seen into the low-6%s. That’s enough to improve affordability and unlock more moves—especially when paired with savvy negotiation.
- Another cut in December is not guaranteed. If the numbers work for you today, it’s reasonable to act rather than try to time the next meeting.
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